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Beijing has sent its maritime law enforcement through the waters of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as Beijing escalates strains following the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Rights Enforcement Activities

On Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity conducted by the Chinese maritime authorities to uphold its rights and interests,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

China and Japan have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, addressed lawmakers that if Beijing assaults the self-governing island of Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Japan.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a withdrawal from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and plans to incorporate it under what it terms “unification”. It has not ruled out the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the status quo without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An attack or invasion by Beijing would threaten to spiral into a international confrontation, potentially involving the US and other partner nations including Tokyo, which has land just 68 miles from Taiwan.

Military Activity

On the island, the military authorities reported this weekend that it had detected three dozen PLA planes, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the past 24 hours.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to the nearby Japanese island. PLA movements there are not rare, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Earlier this weekend, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “joint combat patrol” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted Taiwan had dispatched military assets to track the developments. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Diplomatic Pressure

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since the Japanese official made her comments, with China’s consul general in the Japanese city prompting a formal protest from Japan by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities declared that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China cautioned its citizens against travelling to Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be refunded or changed for free.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

While the advice does not amount to a ban, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on academic institutions in Japan. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Media Response

Late on Saturday, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a political stunt that was “both reckless and fundamentally flawed”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would likely draw in other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says the island's residents alone determine their destiny. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when addressing potential conflicts, maintaining a “strategic ambiguity” also favoured by Japan's primary defense partner, the US.

Nevertheless, Beijing's governing party says the unification of Taiwan with the mainland China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, Beijing has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.