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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It frequently functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

Yet the latest competition is profoundly unique. The pool of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime strugglers rising in unison. During an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by signal-callers. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. Yet the current is not a normal campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and everything together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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